Overseas inventories continue destocking, LME zinc center moves up [SMM Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes for September 16
Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,953/mt. At the beginning of the session, bulls increased positions, and LME zinc fluctuated upward. However, lacking upward momentum, it then fluctuated downward, touching a low of $2,943.5/mt during the night session. Subsequently, bulls continued to add positions, and LME zinc fluctuated upward throughout the session, reaching a high of $2,985/mt before closing. It finally settled at $2,982/mt, up $26/mt, or 0.88%. Trading volume decreased to 11,876 lots, and open interest increased by 13,993 lots to 219,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2510 contract opened at 22,290 yuan/mt. Initially, it briefly moved downward, touching a low of 22,245 yuan/mt. Then, as bears reduced positions, SHFE zinc fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 22,370 yuan/mt before closing. It then consolidated around the daily average, finally settling at 22,335 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt, or 0.11%. Trading volume decreased to 48,000 lots, and open interest decreased by 2,597 lots to 89,406 lots.
Macro:
The US plans to include more steel and aluminum product derivatives within the scope of tariffs; The US intends to expand strategic uranium reserves to reduce dependence on Russia and boost nuclear energy prospects; India and the US will hold trade talks in New Delhi on Tuesday; Trump announced: The US military conducted a second strike against Venezuelan drug traffickers in international waters; Trump calls for an end to mandatory quarterly reporting by enterprises; Musk purchased over 2.5 million Tesla shares in a single day; China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving the TikTok issue; Nvidia violated antitrust laws, and the State Administration for Market Regulation decided to conduct further investigation in accordance with the law.
Shanghai: Yesterday, the refined zinc procurement sentiment in the Shanghai region was 2.32, and the selling sentiment was 2.83. Zinc ingot inventory continued to build up in the Shanghai area. Traders primarily focused on selling, with spot offers remaining basically stable. Downstream enterprises did not see a significant "peak season" shift in orders and continued to make just-in-time procurement. Overall market trades were mainly among traders.
Guangdong: Yesterday, the refined zinc procurement sentiment in the Guangdong region was 1.98, and the sales sentiment was 2.53. Overall, Guangdong currently has ample spot supply, coupled with continuously declining premiums and discounts recently. Traders showed low willingness to sell at low prices, with many market deliveries occurring. The atmosphere for spot trades was relatively sluggish.
Tianjin: Yesterday, the refined zinc procurement sentiment in the Tianjin region was 1.9, and the selling sentiment was 2.61. Zinc prices continued to fluctuate at highs yesterday. Downstream players were cautious about purchasing at high levels, showing low procurement enthusiasm. Traders' selling prices were basically stable, with trades mainly among traders. Overall market transactions were poor.
Ningbo: Zinc ingot long-term contracts arrived successively. At the beginning of the week, many traders were selling in the market. However, some downstream enterprises had made purchases last Friday, and current raw material levels remain ample. Yesterday's purchase performance was average, with spot discounts basically maintaining last week's levels.
Social Inventory: On September 15, LME zinc inventory decreased by 375 mt to 50,150 mt, a decline of 0.74%. According to SMM communication and understanding, as of Thursday this week (September 15), the total SMM zinc ingot inventory across seven regions was 160,600 mt, an increase of 8,500 mt compared to September 8 and an increase of 6,400 mt compared to September 11, indicating a buildup in domestic inventory.
Zinc Price Forecast: Overnight, LME zinc recorded a small bullish candlestick. LME inventory continued to decline to 50,150 mt, and expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut this week persisted, with high capital concentration. LME zinc continued to rise, but upward pressure remains. It is expected that LME zinc will mainly fluctuate at highs today. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a small bullish candlestick. Zinc ingot inventory continued to build up, and domestic consumption performance fell short of expectations. Under the long-term scenario of LME outperforms SHFE, the market is focused on the opening of the zinc ingot export window. It is expected that the center of SHFE zinc may continue to rise today, mainly fluctuating at highs.

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